Your Election Night Viewers Guide

The first results of the night will be the absentee results. This year, I expect absentee ballots to make up about 18-20% of all ballots cast. This is a pretty significant number, and based on past trends (who votes absentee), you are able to make some general predictions based on these absentee numbers. While the percentage of ballots cast through early voting/absentee is expected to be larger than in 2007, there is no indication that it will reach the heights of 2008 when the Obama campaign put a lot of effort into getting people to vote early, and should be similar to '05 and '07.

City Council
The absentee results of white Democrats tend to closely mirror the final result. In 2007, Qualls, Cranley, Crowley, Berding, and Garry all ultimately finished in the same spot as they started after absentee's were counted. Harris finished 2 spots higher in the final results than he did in the absentees. The results were pretty similar in 2005. Cranley, Crowley, and Herd finished the same in absentee and final results. Eve Bolton finished 10th in absentee and 14th overall and Berding finished 9th in absentee and 6th overall.

The absentee results tend to underestimate support for black Democrats. In 2007, Cole, Thomas, Cooper and Young finished on average 2 spots higher in the final count than they did in the absentee count. In 2005, Cole, Thomas, Lynch and Young finished, on average, 2.25 spots higher in the final count than they did after only absentees were counted.

On the other hand, absentee results tends to overestimate support for white Republicans. In 2007, white Republicans finished, on average, 2.5 spots lower in the higher results than in the absentee vote. In 2005, it was a 1.67 spot difference.

The results for Charterites and black Republicans were too varied to reveal any trends.

While these trends are pretty significant, you also have to view the absentee results in context. For example, if Watson is 9th after the absentees but Cole and Thomas are 7th and 8th and Harris is 6th, then do no expect Watson to make a significant jump because the candidates directly in front of her would also expect a bump once the regular votes start to be counted.

Mayor
In 2005 after the absentee results were counted, David Pepper was leading Mark Mallory 57-43. The final results had Mallory winning 52-48 (18 point swing in Mallory's favor). So if Mallory is anywhere near 50% after the absentees are counted, you can expect him to be easily reelected. I expect this race to start the night out tight (with a small Mallory lead), but Mallory ulimately to win with around 60-65% of the vote.

Tax levies
I only gave these a cursory look, but tax levies appear to gain support as the night goes on (unless the tax levy is for senior services), as absentee counts seem to generally under-represent support for tax levies.