How's my driving?

Looking back at my 2009 predictions and analysis to see how well I did.



1. I predicted that the mayoral race would start out tight and end up with a Mallory win with about 60-65 percent. I was partially right on this one, as the race started the night out close and Mallory's lead grew. But he only ended up getting 54%. I'll give myself a 1/2 point for showing my work.

2. I predicted Greg Harris would greatly outperform his 2007 showing. I also predicted that he would retain his seat on council. Once again, I'll give myself a 1/2 point.

3. Enquirer Endorsements. I noted that since 1999 no incumbent endorsed by The Enquirer has failed to be reelected. This again held to be true in 2009. Also, non-Enquirer endorsed candidates won on average 73% of the time. In 09, Monzel, Cole, and Harris were incumbents who did not receive the Enquirer endorsement. I predicted that 1 of them would not be reelected. 2 points.

4. Anonymous poster gets 1 point for correctly picking the last place candidate.

5. I predicted Roxanne Qualls to finish first with about 59 percent of the vote. She finished with 58.27% Boo-ya. Since this isn't the Price Is Right and you don't lose for overbidding, 1 point for the home team.

6. George Zamary got more votes than 2007. 1 point.

7. I hedged my bets on Bernadette Watson, saying she would be close but had some work to do. She finished 11th. I take partial credit - 1/2 point.

8. I identified the following as bellweathers:
Ward 2
Precincts 2-D, 5-A, 5-C, 5-E, 6-B, 8-H, 9-B, 11-C, 12-J, 15-G.

In 2009, Ward 2, 2-D, and 8-H once again had the top 9 correct. This is the third straight election where the top 9 in Ward 2 were also in the top 9 citywide. 3/11 point.

9. I noted that Jeff Berding did not depend on high Democratic precincts for his previous election victories, so the un-endorsement would not overly harm him. Berding ended up 4th, his best finish in 3 tries. 1 point.


For those scoring at home, that's 7.77 points. But I grade on a curve, so its an A+ in my book.