Plum Street Studios

Schmidt scared of Chili?

2010-06-15T15:22:00.000-04:00

Enquirer reports that Schmidt has sued Krikorian for defamation.

This suit seems to have small likelihood of success. So why is she going ahead with it, especially at this juncture, since the defamation alleged revolves around conduct in 2008? Is she trying to bait Krikorian back into the race as an independent, hoping that splits the anti-Schmidt vote like he did 2008?

Dem Primary Landscape: OH-2

2010-05-02T21:09:00.012-04:00

This race has recently turned a bit ugly. Follow the links for more on that story. This post is an attempt to look at the last 2 elections in OH-2 to see if we can spot some trends that will shed some light on Tuesdays outcome.

I expect turnout to be more similar to 2006 than to 2008, given that there is no Barack Obama v. Hillary Clinton battle on hand. Below are the turnout numbers and results from the past 2 Democratic primaries in OH-2.

Looking at the charts, you can see that Parker did well in Pike and Scioto counties in 2006. His overall performance netted 22% of the vote. I think he can reach this again, so the question becomes: How will the other 78% of the vote fall? Chili should follow in the footsteps of Wulsin in '06 and rack up pretty healthy vote totals in Hamilton, Clermont and Warren counties. Both Wulsin in '06 and Chili this year garnered the support of most of the SW Ohio Democratic establishment. Given that about 65% of the Democratic primary vote comes from these 3 counties, that should be enough to carry Yalamanchili to victory.

Looking at the 2008 general election results, you can see that, in general, the counties where Krikorian did best, were the counties where Obama did worst. This seems to suggest that much of Krikorian's support in 2008 came from Republicans who disliked Schmidt but didn't want to vote for a Democrat.

Putting it all together, I expect the results to be roughly Chili 50%, Parker 25% and Krikorian 25%.

How's my driving?

2010-04-05T22:05:00.004-04:00

Looking back at my 2009 predictions and analysis to see how well I did.

1. I predicted that the mayoral race would start out tight and end up with a Mallory win with about 60-65 percent. I was partially right on this one, as the race started the night out close and Mallory's lead grew. But he only ended up getting 54%. I'll give myself a 1/2 point for showing my work.

2. I predicted Greg Harris would greatly outperform his 2007 showing. I also predicted that he would retain his seat on council. Once again, I'll give myself a 1/2 point.

3. Enquirer Endorsements. I noted that since 1999 no incumbent endorsed by The Enquirer has failed to be reelected. This again held to be true in 2009. Also, non-Enquirer endorsed candidates won on average 73% of the time. In 09, Monzel, Cole, and Harris were incumbents who did not receive the Enquirer endorsement. I predicted that 1 of them would not be reelected. 2 points.

4. Anonymous poster gets 1 point for correctly picking the last place candidate.

5. I predicted Roxanne Qualls to finish first with about 59 percent of the vote. She finished with 58.27% Boo-ya. Since this isn't the Price Is Right and you don't lose for overbidding, 1 point for the home team.

6. George Zamary got more votes than 2007. 1 point.

7. I hedged my bets on Bernadette Watson, saying she would be close but had some work to do. She finished 11th. I take partial credit - 1/2 point.

8. I identified the following as bellweathers:
Ward 2
Precincts 2-D, 5-A, 5-C, 5-E, 6-B, 8-H, 9-B, 11-C, 12-J, 15-G.

In 2009, Ward 2, 2-D, and 8-H once again had the top 9 correct. This is the third straight election where the top 9 in Ward 2 were also in the top 9 citywide. 3/11 point.

9. I noted that Jeff Berding did not depend on high Democratic precincts for his previous election victories, so the un-endorsement would not overly harm him. Berding ended up 4th, his best finish in 3 tries. 1 point.

For those scoring at home, that's 7.77 points. But I grade on a curve, so its an A+ in my book.

Why Monzel is a of Son of ...

2010-04-01T23:53:00.010-04:00

Looking at the 2008 primary in Hamilton County reveals some interesting results. The Hamilton County column shows the percent of registered voters living in the area in 2008. The Dem and Republican Primary columns show what percent of the vote in each primary comes from the corresponding locale.

So why is Monzel a "son of the suburbs?" Looking at the chart, the answer becomes fairly obvious. It's because he wants to win. Only 18% of Republican primary voters in Hamilton County live in the City of Cincinnati.

One site, one year, 316 police runs

2010-02-08T11:09:00.000-05:00

One site, one year, 316 police runs

I find it ironic that these properties are caddy-corner from City Hall.

More electoral reform

2009-11-18T13:00:00.000-05:00

This time for judges.

Moyer, others want justice selection changed | Columbus Dispatch Politics:

"A diverse committee of lawyers and nonlawyers would recommend three candidates for Supreme Court seats to the governor, who would make the final call. Then, the sitting justice would stand in a retention election with no opponent in two years."

Who will be next Lieutenant Governor?

2009-11-18T10:08:00.002-05:00

Cincinnati.Com | Cincinnati Enquirer | Politics Extra � Yates: ‘Remove term limits’:

"Yates says he plans to run for public office next year, when his House term ends, but not for a legislative or judicial seat. He declined to name the elective office Tuesday."

That leaves governor, lt. governor, secretary of state, treasurer, and attorney general. Its kind of late in the game to run for any of those, especially considering there are already Democrats running for all those. Well, except for lt. governor. Did Yates let it slip that he will be Stricklands new lt. governor?

We also have this article, when Todd Portune said he talked to Strickland about the LG position in late June. The article mentions an AP story, which says the short list of possible running mates includes Jay Williams, the mayor of Youngstown; State Rep. Jay Goyal of Mansfield, and State Rep. Matt Szollosi of Toledo.

Columbus bus fares to increase also

2009-11-17T17:56:00.001-05:00

People like to complain that SORTA needs reform (which it does to some extent, but other cities are also increasing bus fares.

County Governmental Reform

2009-11-17T17:52:00.001-05:00

Cuyahoga County recently voted to institute an executive form of county government, electing to replace their three-commissioner government and most other elected county offices with an even stronger elected county executive and an 11-member council.
This article discusses Pittsburgh's Allegheny County's move to this type of government.

Since those 2 counties are very similar to Hamilton County, we should closely monitor the results and consider this move in the future.

Ohio stands to lose a congressional seat

2009-11-17T17:39:00.004-05:00

Ohio stands to lose a congressional seat; Texas could gain three

This makes the 2010 statewide elections all that more important, as the district lines will be redrawn after that election.

The Ohio Legislature is responsible for drawing the state’s congressional districts, while the Ohio Apportionment Board draws the state’s legislative districts.

The Ohio Legislature is assisted in drawing the state’s congressional districts by a Legislative Taskforce on Redistricting, Reapportionment, and Demographic Research. Both the Speaker of the House and the President of the Senate each get to appoint three members to the taskforce, including no more than two members of the same political party and one member who must not be a member of the General Assembly.

Members of the Apportionment Board are the governor, the auditor of state, the secretary of state and two members, one Republican and one Democrat, appointed by state legislative leaders.

Monday's Finance Committee Greatest Hits

2009-11-12T09:24:00.001-05:00

Untitled from Ivan Drago on Vimeo.

Oh Pittsburgh...

2009-11-11T15:32:00.002-05:00

WhoDeyRevolution: Dirtsburgh: A Collage Of A Certain Beastly Variety

A sample:

Paul Brown Stadium costs most per win

2009-11-10T17:50:00.000-05:00

Wait, We Paid How Much for This Place? - WSJ.com

Berding, Bortz to push to appeal Environmental Justice ordinance

2009-11-10T12:33:00.005-05:00

From the Business Courier (print only)

Jeff Berding plans to push for a repeal of the Cincinnati Environmental Justice ordinance once the new council takes office.

"I don't see why we wouldn't," added Chris Bortz. "Hopefully, the new council will look at it with an eye toward understanding whether we can afford to do it. We can't. On top of that, it's not even necessary"

Charlie Winburn looks to be the deciding vote, as Winburn told chamber of commerce leaders that he shared their concerns about the ordinance, but did not commit to supporting a repeal if elected.

Low turnout affects Council race

2009-11-06T13:15:00.005-05:00

Unofficial turnout in the City of Cincinnati for Tuesday's election was 31.32%, well below the 35.23% turnout for the last mayoral race (2005). But the drop in turnout was not spread evenly throughout the city. The areas that saw the biggest dropoff percentage wise were, in order, Wards 18 (Queensgate), 13 (Avondale), 3 (Evanston), 17 (West End), 16 (W. CBD), 7 (Bond Hill, Paddock Hills, Roselawn), and 9 (Walnut Hills). On the other hand Wards 1 (Mt. Washington), 19 (Sayler Park), and 4 (Hyde Park/Oakley) actually saw increased turnout.

This definitely affected how the top 9 candidates finished, but it likely did not change who was in the top 9.

I used 2005's turnout on the ward level - took the number of registered voters in each ward in 2009 and multiplied that by the percentage turnout in that ward from 2005. I then took that number and multiplied it by each candidates 2009 vote percentage in each ward. Here are the results applying the 2005 turnout model to the 2009 election:

1. Qualls (46,642 / 58.98%)
2. Thomas (38,582 / 48.78%)
3. Bortz (34,563 / 43.7%)
4. Berding (31,844 / 40.27%)
5. Cole (31,611 / 39.97%)
6. Ghiz (31,212 / 39.46%)
7. Monzel (31,199 / 39.45%)
8. Quinlivan (30,806 / 38.95%)
9. Winburn (30,399 / 28.82%)
10. Watson (27,247 / 24.45%)
11. Harris (27,109 / 24.28%)
12-19 stay the same

Mixed Results

2009-11-04T13:45:00.002-05:00

While all almost everything I voted for won yesterday (mayor, casinos, levies, issue failing), the results from Cincinnati City Council have me feeling somewhat disillusioned.

All it really takes to be elected to city council is name recognition. This race may be the catalyst for the city to finally move to district elections.

Blogging Isn't Cool has some similar thoughts.

How do Cincinnati voters fix a divided city council ? Easy, they re-elect it's most divisive members and toss in the village idiot. When people say Cincinnati gets what it deserves because of the governments it elects, our new council is a shining example. Did voters think the Windbag was going to anoint us with cash ? Did they find Harris' honesty & pragmatism frightening?

Just for Fun

2009-11-03T11:33:00.002-05:00

Predictions
Mayor Mallory

Qualls
Thomas
Bortz
Cole
Ghiz
Berding
Harris
Monzel
Watson

Contenders
Winburn
Young
Fischer
Flynn

Your Election Night Viewers Guide

2009-11-02T18:38:00.003-05:00

The first results of the night will be the absentee results. This year, I expect absentee ballots to make up about 18-20% of all ballots cast. This is a pretty significant number, and based on past trends (who votes absentee), you are able to make some general predictions based on these absentee numbers. While the percentage of ballots cast through early voting/absentee is expected to be larger than in 2007, there is no indication that it will reach the heights of 2008 when the Obama campaign put a lot of effort into getting people to vote early, and should be similar to '05 and '07.

City Council
The absentee results of white Democrats tend to closely mirror the final result. In 2007, Qualls, Cranley, Crowley, Berding, and Garry all ultimately finished in the same spot as they started after absentee's were counted. Harris finished 2 spots higher in the final results than he did in the absentees. The results were pretty similar in 2005. Cranley, Crowley, and Herd finished the same in absentee and final results. Eve Bolton finished 10th in absentee and 14th overall and Berding finished 9th in absentee and 6th overall.

The absentee results tend to underestimate support for black Democrats. In 2007, Cole, Thomas, Cooper and Young finished on average 2 spots higher in the final count than they did in the absentee count. In 2005, Cole, Thomas, Lynch and Young finished, on average, 2.25 spots higher in the final count than they did after only absentees were counted.

On the other hand, absentee results tends to overestimate support for white Republicans. In 2007, white Republicans finished, on average, 2.5 spots lower in the higher results than in the absentee vote. In 2005, it was a 1.67 spot difference.

The results for Charterites and black Republicans were too varied to reveal any trends.

While these trends are pretty significant, you also have to view the absentee results in context. For example, if Watson is 9th after the absentees but Cole and Thomas are 7th and 8th and Harris is 6th, then do no expect Watson to make a significant jump because the candidates directly in front of her would also expect a bump once the regular votes start to be counted.

Mayor
In 2005 after the absentee results were counted, David Pepper was leading Mark Mallory 57-43. The final results had Mallory winning 52-48 (18 point swing in Mallory's favor). So if Mallory is anywhere near 50% after the absentees are counted, you can expect him to be easily reelected. I expect this race to start the night out tight (with a small Mallory lead), but Mallory ulimately to win with around 60-65% of the vote.

Tax levies
I only gave these a cursory look, but tax levies appear to gain support as the night goes on (unless the tax levy is for senior services), as absentee counts seem to generally under-represent support for tax levies.

Signs? We aint go no stinkin' signs!

2009-10-31T18:27:00.000-04:00

The Phony Coney: COAST's City Hall press conference descends into chaos: big fat lies and a shoving match!

I laughed for a good 30 seconds after viewing this clip:

Election 2009: Greg Harris

2009-10-29T19:49:00.010-04:00

Greg Harris was appointed to city council in January 2008. In the past decade or so, there have been 6 other candidates appointed to city council. All 6 won reelection in their next attempt.

1999 Tarbell finished 7th (up from 10th in '97)
2001 Monzel finished 9th (gaining 15,000 votes; up from 17th in '99)
2001 Cranley finished 5th
2003 Cole finished 3rd (up from 10th)
2005 Monzel finished 7th (up from 12th)
2007 Qualls finished 1st.

The average candidate gained a mean of 5.75 spots from their previous attempt, with Monzel gaining the most by moving up 8 spots and Tarbell moving up the least by gaining 3 spots. Harris finished 15th in 2007, so looking at the history of recent appointed candidates that puts him right on the border of being reelected. Another thing Harris has working for him is, to quote Method Man, the dollar dollar bill y'all. In 2007 he raised less than 30k, accounting for only 1.73% of all funds raised. This year his campaign had raised over 65k at the 60 day filing deadline, wich equates to having 6.24% of all funds raised.

Based on the recent history of appointed candidates, his increased fundraising and visibility, and that fact that his voting history is very similar to the 3 most popular members of council (Qualls, Crowley, Thomas), I think Harris has a good shot at remaining on council.

*Full disclosure - I have volunteered on Greg's 2004 congressional campaign and have interned in his city council office.

Does the Enquirer endorsement matter?

2009-10-28T13:44:00.006-04:00

A fairly recent study on newspaper endorsements in presidential elections says yes.

Voters are more likely to support a recommended candidate after their newspaper has published its endorsement. The amount of influence the endorsement has, however, depends largely on how unexpected (or “credible,” to use the authors’ term) the endorsement was, as readers still discount editorial page endorsements according to any bias they perceive in the newspaper’s political leanings.

Since 1999, the Enquirer has had a pretty good track record with its endorsements in Cincinnati City Council races, as 34 out of its 45 (76%) endorsed candidates won. This is not to say that the Enquirer endorsement had a causal effect (though it may/probably does), but it does show that the Enquirer is pretty good at picking winners. Also, since 1999 every incumbent that the Enquirer has endorsed has won reelection. That means that Bortz, Berding, Qualls, Ghiz, and Thomas appear to be fairly safe bets for reelection.

There have been 15 incumbents since 1999 that the Enquirer has not endorsed. Of these, 11 (73%) won reelection. The only ones to not win reelection were Jeannette Cissell in '99, Chris Monzel in '03 and Chris Smitherman and Sam Malone in '05. Note that none of these individuals are Democrats. This year's non-Enquirer endorsed incumbents are Greg Harris, Chris Monzel, and Laketa Cole. If history is any indication, it is likely that one of them will not win reelection and given his party affiliation, Chris Monzel seems the most likely to falter.

Duke Foundation funds Cincy cold shelter

2009-10-28T11:49:00.000-04:00

Duke Foundation funds Cincy cold shelter - Business Courier of Cincinnati:: "The Duke Energy Foundation presented the city of Cincinnati with a check for $12,000 Wednesday to fund the city’s Winter Shelter Program at the Over-the-Rhine Recreation Center this winter.

"If people don’t have a warm place to be when it gets so cold they could freeze to death, that’s public safety,” Mallory said. “Thank you, thank you, thank you.”"

Iraq - America's 8th Safest City?

2009-10-27T17:44:00.002-04:00

According to Forbes, Cincinnati is the 9th safest city in the country and has the 8th lowest violent crime rate.

According to Brad Wenstrup, Iraq is America's 8th safest city.

The Worstest

2009-10-27T17:14:00.006-04:00

You've read about the best, now read about the worst.

Since 1993, 19 candidates have finished with less than 5 percent of the vote. The low was 1.71% in 2007 by a candidate who shall remain nameless. You can look up the name on your own if you like.

It's doubtful that anyone will get below 1.71, but does anyone think a candidate will drop below 5%? Who do you think will finish last?

A party endorsement goes a long way towards not finishing last, as a non-endorsed candidate has finished last in each election since at least 1991.

NAACP Mayoral and Council scorecard

2009-10-27T11:43:00.002-04:00

Greg Harris ranked number 1 out of council members running for reelection. Mayor Mallory only given 40% pass rate.
Cincinnati NAACP 2009 Cincinnati Mayoral Legislative Report Card

Cincinnati NAACP 2009 Cincinnati City Council Legislative Report Card

Election 2009: Roxanne Qualls

2009-10-26T18:45:00.007-04:00

The issue for Qualls is not whether she will win reelection but rather will she get the highest percentage of votes ever* (*or in the last 16 years). The record since 1993 is held by Charlie Luken, who garnered 62.84% in 1999. In 2007, Qualls finished with 54.92%. She would have had to have garnered almost 5,000 more votes in 2007 to top Luken's output in 1999.

Can she top him in 2009? It's doubtful but not impossible.

In 1997, Qualls finished with 60.69%. To top Luken, she would have to return and surpass these 1997 vote percentages. That would require gaining about 10 percentage points in Hyde Park, Oakley, and Mt. Lookout and about 6 percent everywhere else. I think Qualls will get close to these numbers, given the weak council slate, her dual Charter-Democratic endorsement, the increased turnout due to the mayoral race, and her good work since rejoining council, but come up a little short finish with about 59 percent.

Name	Year	Percent
Luken	1999	62.84
Qualls	1997	60.69
Qualls	2007	54.92
Cranley	2007	54.91
Portune	1999	54.34
Tillery	1997	54.3
Qualls	1995	53.68
Heimlich	1995	52.49
Pepper	2003	52.14
Portune	1997	51.28
Winburn	1999	51.18
Crowley	2007	50.61
Pepper	2001	50.49
Tillery	1995	49.81
Qualls	1993	49.33

The Buckeye State

2009-10-22T18:41:00.002-04:00

700WLW - THE BIG ONE

City Hall Money Race Revisited

2009-10-22T11:14:00.007-04:00

In an earlier post I commented on how Charlie Winburn had dominated the fund raising race for city council. But as with many things associated with Winburn, if you have to dig a little deeper to get to the truth.

Looking at the finance reports, Charlie Winburn has a $134,724.15 contribution from "Winburn" and the comments state "debt forgiven". Removing this amount from Winburn's total still leads him in the lead for 2009 (through the 60 day reports), but it is by no means the most impressive fund raising total over the last couple of elections.

Candidate	Year	Percent	Finish
Berding	2005	16.62	6
Cranley	2005	15.92	1
Bortz	2007	14.92	5
Winburn	2009	14.82	-
Bortz	2009	12.95	-
Berding	2007	12.85	8
Pepper	2003	12.46	1
Dewine	2003	12.38	6
Bortz	2005	12.15	8
Berding	2009	12.15	-
Monzel	2003	10.04	12

Today's Bold Prediction

2009-10-22T08:00:00.002-04:00

George Zamary will get more votes than he got in 2007.

The Fifty Five Million Dollar Man

2009-10-21T14:48:00.009-04:00

Donald over at Cincinnati Blog has a question for city council candidates that I can help him shed some light on.

These numbers are all from the 2009/10 biennial budget. These numbers have changed some since the budget was passed, but they are still a good way to figure out the relative cost of items. I am not a budget analyst, I'm just a guy that knows how to use excel and the internet, so these numbers are more of averages than actual numbers.

Certain council members and candidates have taken tax and fee increases and layoffs to police and fire off the table for the 2010. What would the budget look like with no tax increase and no cuts to the public safety personnel?

In the 2009 budget, police and fire personnel costs (includes employee benefits) accounted for 60.03% of the general fund expenditures ($214.5m of $357.3). If you take into account public safety revenue, the net cost of public safety personnel equates to 58.13% of general fund expenditures. Note -you often hear that the public safety budget makes up two-thirds of the general fund - this is correct when you look at the whole public safety budget, not just personnel costs.

The point of this is to show that to bridge the anticipated $51.5 million budget deficit for 2010 without making cuts to portions of the budget that account for 58-60% of expenditures will lead to drastic cuts in other areas. I feel kinda ridiculous writing that statement because it seems so obvious, but it seems the media and certain council candidates are not confronting this reality.

For 2010, non-public safety spending equals $115.7 million. Adding the non-personnel public safety costs gets you to $138.5m. The total proposed budget was $375.6. So if you were not going to reduce the public safety budget at all, you would have to cut 44.51% from all the other departments budgets. If you do not cut public safety personnel at all, you still have to cut 37.20% from all the other departments and non-personnel public safety.

Basically, as a candidate you have to ask yourself if it is realistic to cut 37.2% of public services, human resources, law, community development, transportation & engineering, finance, regional computer center (rcc), planning, city council, mayor, city manager, clerk, health, recreation, parks, and citizen complaint authority before laying off 1 cop or firefighter or even asking them to forego their pay raise for next year.

Public safety should be the city's top priority, but not at the expense of everything else.

I know that some of you are thinking that we should consolidate HR departments within the city, consolidate city and county prosecutors, close the least used pools and rec centers, and stop funding CIRV. Check back later to see how much these items actually cost the city. Hint - its nowhere close to $51.5 million.

KY Enquirer Can See the Future

2009-10-21T14:22:00.001-04:00

November 18, 2008: Mark Mallory To Remain As Cincinnati Mayor Talk about scooping the competition...

Interesting Take on Cincinnati

2009-10-21T14:11:00.001-04:00

Former Enquirer Business editor writes about Cincinnati

This reminds me things I can do without. Close to the top of this list is that stupid quote supposedly from Mark Twain that I will not repeat. If you love Cincinnati, don't ever repeat that quote.

Election 2009: Bernadette Watson

2009-10-19T19:18:00.003-04:00

In my opinion, Watson, aka Granny Bunny, has a fair-to-decent shot at gaining one of the nine seats at stake in November's election. I figure that Watson's vote totals will be similar to those of Minette Cooper in 2007.

Cooper finished in 11th place (about 4,500 votes behind Chris Monzel for 9th place and about 3,100 votes behind Winburn). There are a few things working in Watson's favor in this cycle that will help her close that gap.

For one, this council slate has been less visible and has raised less money than any in recent memory. Second, 2009 is a mayoral election year, which will drive up Democratic and African-American turnout. Third, in 2007 there seemed to be a general attitude that people did not want to revisit/relive the past, with Qualls, Windburn, Malone and Cooper all running again after being on council in previous years. I think may also have hurt Cooper's vote total a little bit.

The next closest Dem to finish in front of Cooper was Laketa Cole, who finished with about 6,000 more votes than Cooper. Granny Bunny would need to improve upon Cooper's finish by about 3,000 votes to have a shot at 9th place. The easiest way to do this would be to find the voters who voted for Cole but not Cooper in 2007. The majority of these voters (3,223 to be exact) are in high Dem wards (where Obama got over 75% of the vote.) If Granny Bunny can convince these 3,223 Democratic voters to vote for her, she could well be on her way to gaining on seat on city council.

Ad blitz to tout Cincinnati as marketing hub

2009-10-19T19:14:00.000-04:00

Ad blitz to tout Cincinnati as marketing hub | Cincinnati.com | The Cincinnati Enquirer: "The effort seeks to build on a substantial core of marketing talent already here, drawn by major advertisers such as P&G, Macy's and Kroger, and organize it, expand it and tell the world about it.

The goal is in three years to make Cincinnati as well known for consumer marketing as California's Silicon Valley is for technology."

Politco calls Jennifer Brunner a flop

2009-10-17T23:20:00.000-04:00

Campaign cash: The tops and the flops: "Jennifer Brunner. How bad was the Ohio Secretary of State’s quarter? So bad that her campaign won’t say. The campaign refused to release any of its fundraising figures and fired leading members of its finance committee.

Brunner, who’s running for Ohio’s open Senate seat, said she’s remaining in the Democratic primary against Lee Fisher despite the long odds. But without a near-miraculous turnaround, she won’t have enough money left to compete."

Enquirer Endorsements an Utter Disaster

2009-10-17T10:58:00.005-04:00

WTF?

When I started this blog, I wanted to try and keep it positive for the most part, but the Enquirer endorsements for City Council are a complete joke.

It is fortunate that this fall’s slate of candidates for Cincinnati City Council is one of the strongest in recent years.

In what way is this the strongest in years? In has the worst fundraising numbers in recent history. Except for Watson (one candidate they don't even mention), I haven't heard one peep from the challengers on how to fix next year's budget deficit. I think the general consensus is that this is a weak council slate.

Our choices include three Democrats, three Republicans and three Charterites:

Let's do some math here: Democrats = Hollan and Thomas (2). Republicans = Ghiz, Murray, Winburn (3). Charterites = Bortz and Flynn. Qualls is dually endorsed by the Charter and Democractic parties. Berding is an independent. So this equals 2 Democrats, 3 Republicans, 2 Charterites, 1 Charter-Democrat, 1 Independent.

Jeff Berding (D) – An incumbent who has emerged as a strong, principled presence, showing independence and courage in proposing solutions and working with colleagues...

First, Jeff Berding is not a Democrat. If the Enquirer trys to state that he is a Democrat because that is how he votes on a national level, then they should list Bortz and Flynn as Republicans. And when has Berding worked with colleagues? Was it when he wanted to tax homeless people? Or when he wanted to reimburse members of Westwood Concern for trespassing? Perhaps it was the time he said David Crowley, a fellow member of council, has a "warped values system."

Roxanne Qualls (C)

As mentioned above, she has been endorsed by both the Charter and Democratic parties, not just the Charter Party as the Enquirer states.

Winburn is an innovative, high-energy charmer who delves into issues with exhaustive research and sincerely wants to get things done. His presence on council would be a nice check on the egos and alliances that tend to avoid tough questions and stifle debate.

Examples of Winburn's exhaustive research include a robo-call stating City Council has laid off 138 police officers, implying the Mayor could poison us, seeing how many times he can say "murder, rape, or assault", stating that only "born-again believers" should be elected to public office, and a woman "must be taught what her boundaries are and how to be a 'helpmate' to her husband"

To sum up, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer, if you vote with 3 others members (thus accomplishing nothing), you are principled and a team player, but if you vote with the Mayor and 4 other members (thus moving the city forward), you are a hard-core partisan.

City Council Bellwethers

2009-10-13T23:33:00.006-04:00

In 2007, there were 10 precincts and 2 wards that had all 9 winning members (citywide) finish in the top 9 (in the bellwether). The bellwether wards were Ward 2, home of Madisonville and parts of Oakley and Ward 8, home of Mt Adams and Walnut Hills. The 10 precincts were 2-D, 5-A, 5-C, 5-E, 6-B, 8-H, 9-B, 11-C, 12-J, 15-G. The ultimate bellwether precinct was 5-C, where the top 10 vote getters finished in the exact same order as the city as a whole.

So do these bellwethers have any predictive value for 2009? To determine this, I looked back at the bellwethers in 2005 to see how they fared in 2007. In 2005 there were 11 bellwether precincts and one bellwether ward. Ward 2, Precinct 2-D and Precinct 5-A were the only 2005 bellwethers to also serve as bellwethers in 2007 (predicting all 9 winners in both years). 7 of these 2005 bellwethers correctly predicted 8 of the 9 council members in 2007 and the other one predicted 7 out of 9. That's a pretty good track record.

So to get a good idea of how the upcoming council race will turn out, I suggest driving around Ward 2 and the other 10 precincts listed above. If you can get a feel for who these areas are supporting (by looking at yard signs, talking to people in the area, etc), you likely have a pretty good idea who the city as a whole is supporting.

Leon Hall (of Fame)

2009-10-12T18:32:00.002-04:00

via Lance McAlister

Leon Hall shuts people down. Here's how other teams number one receivers have fared so far against the Bengals:

Week 1 vs. Denver, Brandon Marshall 4 rec. 27 yards
Week 2 vs. Green Bay, Greg Jennings 0 rec. 0 yards
Week 3 vs. Pittsburgh, Santonio Holmes 1 rec, 18 yards
Week 4 vs. Cleveland, Braylon Edwards 0 rec. 0 yards
Week 5 vs. Baltimore, Derrick Mason 0 rec. 0 yards

This Sunday Andre Johnson and the Houston Texans come into the Jungle. Andre Johnson is better than any receiver the Bengals have faced thus far. If they can shut him down, that would be truly remarkable.

Election 2009: Jeff Berding

2009-10-11T23:27:00.007-04:00

While this city council election has a lot of interesting candidates and plot lines, I find the prospects of Jeff Berding to be the most interesting. In 2005 and 2007, Berding was an endorsed Democrat. While he was never popular with Democratic activists and leaders, he still garnered a decent amount of electoral support from Democrats. Most importantly, he appeared on the Democratic sample ballot that was sent to all absentee voters and handed out on Election Day at precincts with a high percentage of Democrats.

How will being un-endorsed by the Democratic Party affect Berding's electoral prospects this year?

One way to determine this is to compare Berding's 2007 results in high Democratic precincts with those of Chris Bortz in 2007. These 2 candidates have a lot in common. They are both young-to-middle age white males. They also have similar voting patterns on council. The big difference between the 2 is that Berding wasbeen endorsed by the Democracic Party in 2005 and 2007, while Bortz was endorsed by the Charter Committee. To determine high Democratic precincts, I used precincts where Obama received more than 80% of the vote (he received 74.9% city wide). Bortz received 7,525 votes. Berding received 7,866 votes in these precincts. Looking at the chart, you can see that Berding was more popular in areas where Obama got less than 80% of the vote than in precincts that gave Obama more than 80%. So if Berding drops and gets a similar number of votes as Bortz in high Democratic precincts, he still only loses 341 votes, which is really not a significant amount - considering that he outpaced 10th placed Winburn by 1,500 votes.

But 2009 is not 2007. In my opinion, there is a clearer line between the majority (Cole, Crowley, Harris, Qualls, Thomas) and the minority (Berding, Bortz, Ghiz, Monzel) this year than in 2007. We will shortly see rather this affects the minority in high Democratic precincts.
80 Percent

Cincy Neighborhood Map

2009-10-10T17:08:00.004-04:00

It's Morning in Cincinnati!
Thanks to Hamilton County Democratic Party for the link

City Hall Money Race

2009-10-10T15:56:00.002-04:00

The fund raising for the Cincinnati City Council race is lacking compared to previous years. This year, $1,177,799 has been raised through early September. For comparison, $1,630,055.80 had been raised at that point in 2007, $1,200,280.28 in 2005, and $1,295,036.92 in 2003.

What's this mean to you? Probably less TV ads, less mailers and less yard signs. Has anyone noticed an impact on TV ads, radio ads, direct mail or yard signs? The TV and radio ads usually run in the 3 weeks leading up to the election.

Another interesting point from looking at the fund raising numbers is that Charlie Winburn currently accounts for 24.57% of all funds raised. Since 2003, here are the candidates that raised the highest percentage of all money raised (way down --> anyone able to help with the formatting?):

Candidate	Year	Percent	Finish
Winburn	2009	24.57	-
Berding	2005	16.62	6
Cranley	2005	15.92	1
Bortz	2007	14.92	5
Berding	2007	12.85	8
Pepper	2003	12.46	1
Dewine	2003	12.38	6
Bortz	2005	12.15	8
Bortz	2009	11.47	-
Berding	2009	10.76	-
Monzel	2003	10.04	12

Blog: \ˈblȯg, ˈbläg\

2009-10-10T15:51:00.000-04:00

Etymology: short for Weblog

Date: 1999

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